By Hayder Alkhafaji, Researcher in Middle East affair
The United States and the United Kingdom launch strikes against Yemen. The Houthis vow revenge
The United States and Britain have launched military strikes in Yemen against the Ansar Allah “Houthis” in response to the group’s attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, raising fears of an escalation in the conflict in the region. U.S. President Joe Biden warned on Thursday that he would “not hesitate” in taking further action if necessary, and that the strikes followed “unprecedented” Houthi attacks on coalition warships in the Red Sea[1].
Mohammed Abdul Salam, the Houthis’ chief negotiator and spokesman, described the United States and Britain as having “committed folly with this treacherous aggression.” He added that “they were wrong to think that they could prevent Yemen from supporting Palestine and Gaza,” and vowed that the group would continue to target “Israeli ships or those bound for the ports of occupied Palestine.”
Some three weeks ago, the United States formed a multinational naval taskforce aimed at protecting commercial shipping in the Red Sea, known as “Operation Guardian of Prosperity.” Concerns about the ongoing disruptions in global trade following the attacks by Yemeni Houthi militants are the main factor behind the formation of this coalition. So far, more than two dozen countries have joined the coalition to patrol the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden to counter Houthi attacks and assist merchant vessels transiting this vital international waterway[2].
The Houthis have previously described the deployment of drones and missiles against ships crossing the Red Sea as a response to Israel’s devastating assault on the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip, and further described the US-led international coalition as part of the aggression against the Palestinian people and warned that they would attack U.S. warships if the armed group itself was targeted. [3]
Not long after the war on Gaza had started, Houthi forces seized the opportunity to increase their stake in the geopolitics of the Middle East and the Red Sea by striking a blow against global trade and opening a new naval front. The Houthis exploited their strategic geographic location in the Red Sea and near the Bab al-Mandab Strait to demonstrate their solidarity with Gaza.
The Red Sea serves as a link between the strategic waters of the Mediterranean Sea, the Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz and the Indian Ocean. The Red Sea is a critical waterway, an extremely busy international trade route facilitating the worldwide distribution of gas and oil. The Red Sea, which connects to the Mediterranean Sea via the Suez Canal, provides the shortest shipping route between Europe and Asia,[4] with about 12% of global shipping traffic passing through the Suez Canal. The Bab al-Mandab Strait, the southern gateway to the Red Sea, transports approximately 8.8 million barrels of oil and 4.5 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day. The Red Sea region is important to the United States[5] and its partners in the region.
While the United States and its allies grapple with the wave of attacks by the Houthis in Yemen on commercial shipping, China is notable by its absence from the international efforts to protect shipping in the Red Sea.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a call with his Chinese counterpart that all nations have an obligation to maintain maritime security and that Washington would welcome Beijing’s constructive role in deterring further attacks by the Houthi.[6] Beijing did not respond directly to the invitation, however, Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin expressed the view that China believes that the relevant parties, especially the influential major powers, should play a constructive and responsible role in maintaining the safety of the Red Sea shipping lanes[7].
The geopolitical importance of the Red Sea is also the focus of other world powers, including China, which has rapidly expanded its diplomatic, economic and military activities to become a key player in the region. China is the world’s largest importer of raw materials and energy, the bulk of which is transported through the Red Sea, which connects the Maritime Silk Road, formed by the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean, with Southeast Asia, the Arabian Gulf, the Red Sea, the Mediterranean Sea and Europe, thus providing China with easy access to the world’s energy resources, as well as the markets consuming the goods produced by China.
In May 2023, Yemen’s Houthis signed a memorandum of understanding with China’s Anton Oilfield Services Group to invest in oil exploration in Yemen. China[8] is also increasingly viewing the Middle East as an important hub for the expansion of its major “One Belt, One Road” infrastructure initiative.
Alongside the geo-economics benefits, Yemen’s geopolitical location on the Red Sea is attractive to Beijing. China has already established a military base in neighbouring Djibouti under the pretext of combating piracy, deploying some 10,000 troops, and gaining full control over all maritime traffic crossing the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.[9] Extending over the length of one of the world’s busiest and most important waterways, overlooked by U.S. and French military bases, China’s military base heightens the geopolitical risks in the region and raises concerns about the increasing militarization of the Red Sea. China’s interests appear to be aligned with the Houthis’ international strategy of weakening American naval dominance through increased global multipolarity. Beijing has tacitly recognized the Houthis as Yemen’s legitimate governing authority.
Whilst there is no evidence that Chinese warships are congregating in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, Beijing’s silence in the face of Houthi attacks engenders the need for a more active U.S. presence in the region. A core principle of the 2022 U.S. National Security Strategy is that “The United States will not allow foreign or regional powers to jeopardize freedom of navigation through the Middle East’s waterways.”[10] However, since the start of the war between Israel and Hamas, Houthi forces have carried out more than 100 drone and missile attacks, targeting 10 commercial cargo ships linked to dozens of countries, some of which they have illegally seized[11]. Despite all this happening, the United States has been unable to prevent the Houthis from targeting ships.
The recent war between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia is a sobering reminder of the difficulties facing the U.S. in curbing the Houthis; Saudi Arabia spent between $5 billion and $6 billion a month fighting the group, but effectively lost the war and was forced to sign a fragile truce in 2022[12]. The two sides are still negotiating a permanent ceasefire.
The recent strikes by the US and UK are seen as both ineffective and futile, and as long as this remains to be the case, the Houthis and their backers will remain on the offensive. If the United States and its allies fail to prevent further missile attacks in the Red Sea, Houthi threats will not only imperil shipping in the Red Sea, but also pose grave risks for the security of the region, which is a priority for the United States and its partners in the region.
In the face of an increase in the intensity of Houthi military operations in the Red Sea, the creation of an international taskforce in the form of “Operation Guardian of Prosperity” to escort or protect ships transiting the Red Sea does not appear to be adequate enough response.
Moreover, with all the signs pointing towards a potentially major military confrontation, the possibility of a decisive military response has correspondingly increased, thus paving the way for yet more regional players to appear on the scene and with it polarising the whole region and potentially dragging it into a wider international conflict involving players who are not in any way directly connected to the region.
References:
- US and UK launch strikes against Yemen; Houthi rebels promise to retaliate. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/12/us-and-uk-launch-strikes-against-houthi-rebels-in-yemen
- More than 20 countries now part of US-led Red Sea coalition, Pentagon says. https://www.reuters.com/world/more-than-20-countries-now-part-us-led-red-sea-coalition-pentagon-2023-12-21/
- US, UK forces repel ‘largest attack’ by Houthis in Red Sea. https://www.reuters.com/world/us-uk-forces-shoot-down-houthi-missile-drone-attack-red-sea-us-military-2024-01-10/
- The Red Sea (Bab Al-Mandeb to Suez Canal). https://dg.dryadglobal.com/red-sea
- Red Sea chokepoints are critical for international oil and natural gas flows. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61025
- US courts China to join anti-Houthi naval task force. https://english.alarabiya.net/News/gulf/2023/12/20/US-courts-China-to-join-anti-Houthi-naval-task-force
- China calls on all parties to act responsibly for Red Sea safety. https://news.cgtn.com/news/2024-01-04/China-calls-on-all-parties-to-act-responsibly-for-Red-Sea-safety-1q66z8bl7pe/p.html
- Yemen signs deal with Chinese firm for oil exploration. https://new.thecradle.co/articles/yemen-signs-deal-with-chinese-firm-for-oil-exploration
- China’s Djibouti naval base increasing its power. https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2020/05/16/chinas-djibouti-naval-base-increasing-its-power/
- NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY.The White House (.gov)
- Houthis say they carried out drone attack on Israeli port of Eilat. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/26/uk-maritime-group-reports-drones-explosion-off-yemen-coast
- Houthi attacks are reaching boiling point – but a US-led military response would be a grave error. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/jan/07/houthi-attacks-us-military-yemen-middle-east
[1] US and UK launch strikes against Yemen; Houthi rebels promise to retaliate. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/12/us-and-uk-launch-strikes-against-houthi-rebels-in-yemen
[2] More than 20 countries now part of US-led Red Sea coalition, Pentagon says. https://www.reuters.com/world/more-than-20-countries-now-part-us-led-red-sea-coalition-pentagon-2023-12-21/
[3] US, UK forces repel ‘largest attack’ by Houthis in Red Sea. https://www.reuters.com/world/us-uk-forces-shoot-down-houthi-missile-drone-attack-red-sea-us-military-2024-01-10/
[4] The Red Sea (Bab Al-Mandeb to Suez Canal). https://dg.dryadglobal.com/red-sea
[5] Red Sea chokepoints are critical for international oil and natural gas flows. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61025
[6] US courts China to join anti-Houthi naval task force. https://english.alarabiya.net/News/gulf/2023/12/20/US-courts-China-to-join-anti-Houthi-naval-task-force
[7] China calls on all parties to act responsibly for Red Sea safety. https://news.cgtn.com/news/2024-01-04/China-calls-on-all-parties-to-act-responsibly-for-Red-Sea-safety-1q66z8bl7pe/p.html
[8] Yemen signs deal with Chinese firm for oil exploration. https://new.thecradle.co/articles/yemen-signs-deal-with-chinese-firm-for-oil-exploration
[9] China’s Djibouti naval base increasing its power. https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2020/05/16/chinas-djibouti-naval-base-increasing-its-power/
[10] NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY.The White House (.gov)
[11] Houthis say they carried out drone attack on Israeli port of Eilat. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/26/uk-maritime-group-reports-drones-explosion-off-yemen-coast
[12] Houthi attacks are reaching boiling point – but a US-led military response would be a grave error. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/jan/07/houthi-attacks-us-military-yemen-middle-east