Artificial intelligence (AI) is a fast-growing technology field that has attracted the attention of commercial investors, the defence industry, policymakers, international competitors and adversaries, alike. AI has the ability to analyse copious amounts of data and information in a relatively short space of time and can extract patterns and detect relationships unnoticed by ordinary humans. This means that AI can be leveraged to provide strategic recommendations and detailed analyses which assist with the forging of foreign policy decisions.
Amongst the many uses of AI in foreign policy is the analysis of the foreign policies of third countries in order to anticipate where they are headed. This is commonly done by monitoring and analysing media, websites and social networks. AI can also be used to develop predictive models to estimate the response of these countries to certain policy actions, which can help in shaping future diplomacy and foreign policy decision-making strategies.
As evidenced by several recent initiatives, a number of countries, including the Chinese government, have released strategies detailing their plans to take the lead in AI by 2030. Less than two months later, Vladimir Putin publicly announced Russia’s intention to pursue AI technologies, saying, “The party that will become the leader in this field will rule the world.”[1]
The United States, which has so far been a leader in this field, expressed its fears of losing this leadership due to competition. In 2021, R&D accounted for 3.40% of GDP, having exceeded 3% for the first time in 2019. Between 1964 and more recent times, the US witnessed significant changes in its domestic R&D funding sources, as federal R&D expenditures decreased and funding for U.S. companies increased. In 1964, federal expenditures accounted for 1.86% of GDP and 67% of total domestic R&D, while business finance accounted for 0.86% of the total economy and 31% of R&D. By 2020, U.S. companies accounted for 73% of domestic R&D, equivalent to 2.47% of the value of domestically produced goods and services, while the share of federal funding fell to 21% of domestic R&D and 0.70% of GDP[2].
The Department of External Security Affairs, part of China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, is considered as one of the world’s leading institutions in its use of AI systems for the analysis and decision-making processes of issues that come before it. For example, this institution used AI in deciding on the complex matrix of foreign investment in its “China’s Belt and Road Initiative”, which carries with it high inherent political, economic and environmental risks[3].
With the deterioration in global trade, China has faced considerable challenges and has had to, as a matter of necessity, to bolster its industrial base and improve investment. In this context, China began conducting in-depth research into the benefits and security of Chinese and foreign investment in China’s “The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI, or B&R).” This is seen as a top priority topic in China’s strategic vision.
The Chinese government reached a consensus on the need to use technological advances such as AI to put forward proposals and to evaluate the effectiveness and security of Chinese foreign investment. This will also involve taking steps to develop a neural network supported by AI technologies that will help enhance this task, as it can analyse and evaluate relevant data and provide valuable insights into the effectiveness and security of Chinese foreign investment. The synergy between AI and the evaluation of Chinese foreign investment has contributed towards achieving marked improvements in industrial output and improved investment efficiency and is therefore an important subject for more in-depth research and future studies[4].
As for Russia, it has shown great interest in AI technology and considers it to be one of the top national priorities in the development of its technological capabilities. It seeks to use AI in a variety of applications, including military reconnaissance, surveillance and in the command and control of military operations. It aims to improve its capabilities in the collection and analysis of information and in making strategic decisions. It is also involved in developing automated analysis systems for the processing of data, imagery and intelligence gathering to improve military intelligence and strategic decision-making.[5]